Grand Transitions: Looking Ahead Without Forecasting

Medieval and early-modern civilizations were relatively stable societies: their environment, population and health, primary energy sources, food production, artisanal manufacturing, cities, and transportation were all changing at a slow pace. In contrast, during the nineteenth century those conditions began to change at an unprecedented pace. During the twentieth century, these shifts embraced all but a small share of humanity, and they have only since deepened in infrastructural and international terms. Vaclav Smil assessed where these fundamental, concatenated shifts stand at the beginning of the twenty-first century. He focused on the progress and dynamics of demographic transition, energy supply, food production, technical innovation, and global environmental change, outlining the magnitudes and complexities of likely developments, as well as some rational options to create a newer world.