Kurt Viermetz Lecture

The 2024 Presidential Elections: A Divided US in Turmoil and Political Instability

In the recent past, the best indicators for election outcomes were national polls, the mood of the country, and the incumbent President’s job-approval numbers. The last several elections have debunked this conventional wisdom, and the metrics typically used to forecast outcomes are not likely to be as predictive as they have been. Moreover, the 2024 presidential race is taking shape during a period of deep political turmoil, when all the rules in American politics are being rewritten. Yet for all this uncertainty, contends Doug Sosnik, the electoral roadmap to the 2024 election outcome could not be more clear. In this talk, Sosnik takes a closer look at early 2024 polling data, the political dynamics driving campaign strategies, and voter groups that will likely determine the outcome.