American Academy Lecture
The U.S. 2020 Elections: Trump Redux or Change?
In February 2020, a booming U.S. economy seemed to have set Donald Trump on a clear course for reelection. By March 31, however, his handling of the fallout from the coronavirus pandemic had led to his steady decline in the polls, dramatically complicating his prospects. In this talk, David Brady outlines the forces determining Trump’s chances in the upcoming presidential election, along with the factors working for and against his campaign. He also compares Joe Biden’s current performance with that of Hillary Clinton’s in 2016 among four important voting blocs in the American polity—race, age, gender, and education—to assess the likelihood of Republicans retaining control of the United States presidency and senate in the 2020 elections.